Hah! As they say, 'May you live in interesting times'. Yes, it's possible that in a fit of pique, the Zionists may decide to blow us all up but then again, the US could do the same given the way their war on Russia is going and of course, all things are possible. But France is bucking the trend in Europe, at least when it comes to votes but it's clear that real change will only come from extra-parliamentary actions. We need another 1871!
Read both Ramin's and Jeff J Brown's dramatically different takes on the election. Regarding Jeff's, if 39 right-wing seats deserted the right for Macron as he states, why wouldn't Macron have 202(163+39) seats and come in first? Or are the 39 deserters in some kind of limbo status? Regarding Ramin's analysis, if Macron was trying to set Le Pen up to win and give her a poison chalice, why would his party back out of elections to give the Left an advantage and undermine the Right?
The 39 right-wing deserters deserted Macron before the election, so we can't add them to Macron's coalition total.
On if Macron was trying to set Le Pen up to win why did his party back out of elections to undermine Le Pen: This is called the "Republican Front" electoral tactic and has been around for a few decades. Definitely, Macron could not openly say "Let's end the Republican Front so that Le Pen will win" - that's simply a political impossible thing for him to do. It would totally go against his image. So I understand your question - the idea that Macron wanted to give the far-right power is something which we'll never have hard evidence of, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. The only alternative is that he genuinely thought his party would be handed another super-majority like in 2017 (keep in mind they already had a majority prior to these latest elections), which only somebody as deluded and lost as Macron could possibly think! So that's a possibility, but I trust his father: Macron, tired of not having a super-majority to do whatever he wished, threw out the 2022 votes and decided that it's better to give the far-right power in order to discredit themselves by 2027.
"...fake leftists, who are so rampant in the West..." To those of my friends who tolerate my vulgarity and who I fear may be straying too far into identity politics, I like to say: "If you ain't talking class you're just blowing it out your arse". I used to read with great interest the writings of yours that the Saker published. So it was with delight that I discovered the other day that you now have a substack. I look forward to being enlightened by your analysis and amused by your humour. Best wishes.
The Paris Olympics might present the perfect opportunity for a false flag. Blame any deaths or disruption on the evil Russians. It looks like the bed bugs there (Paris) will feast on "international cuisine". Europe never seems smaller than when a war is going on. If Hilary Spurling's book on Matisse is correct (link), the Russians were fans of Matisse and the "new art" well before the French, who clung to the traditionalist-pedantic Academy approved art. Lucky Matisse got to experience the Franco-Prussian dust-up (as a babe)plus the good times of WW1 and WW2. Many French artists were cannon fodder as a result of these altercations. Hey! War worked out so well before, let's have another go at it.
I can tell you that Paris will be on total lockdown - really a huge, huge security operation. So it's going to be quite hard for actual terrorists, but a false flag? I hear you, the Olympics would be a good time to try and turn public opinion against Russia. I doubt it would work though!
A point of clarification, did the republican front then consist of the New Popular Front and Macron's Party, the agreement being the weakest of these would drop out in order to stop National Rally, or was the republican front some other configuration?
In the 1st round if no candidate gets 50% they go to a second round. Anyone getting more than 12.5% advances to the 2nd round, so that often means 3 or more candidates.
If someone NOT on the far-right - New Popular Front, Macron, non-deserting Republicans, Socialist Party, Greens, whoever - knows that they really don't have a chance to prevail in the 2nd round... then they withdraw from the race in order to allow his voters to (if they choose) give his or her votes to a non-far-right candidate. So the tactic is to unite votes AGAINST a candidate - the far-right.
So the "Republic" in "Republican Front" is not referring to the French Republican Party - it is referring to the concept of preserving the "republic" system of the current French 5th Republic from falling into the hand of "fascists".
Thanks for the insightful rundown. Your stuff is indispensable. Hope springs eternal but success in this environment will be tough. The response will be brutal in terms of finance capital and MSM propaganda. An upsurge of Gladio-style terrorism is also possible to feed the "can't govern" narrative and drive people to the right. Let's hope a few policy victories that help lift up ordinary people light the way.
Success for the leftist coalition in this environment is very tough, indeed. Will they be allowed any policy victories, no matter how sensible and needed by the masses? I don't know. The next year could be one big blah blah parliamentary brawl resulting in nothing.
Okay, the questiom now is, what are they going to do with their victory? As you say, hopefully, NOT a repeat of 1936!
Not up for WWIII, lol?
Somebody tell Israel that, and maybe they'll stop.
Hah! As they say, 'May you live in interesting times'. Yes, it's possible that in a fit of pique, the Zionists may decide to blow us all up but then again, the US could do the same given the way their war on Russia is going and of course, all things are possible. But France is bucking the trend in Europe, at least when it comes to votes but it's clear that real change will only come from extra-parliamentary actions. We need another 1871!
Read both Ramin's and Jeff J Brown's dramatically different takes on the election. Regarding Jeff's, if 39 right-wing seats deserted the right for Macron as he states, why wouldn't Macron have 202(163+39) seats and come in first? Or are the 39 deserters in some kind of limbo status? Regarding Ramin's analysis, if Macron was trying to set Le Pen up to win and give her a poison chalice, why would his party back out of elections to give the Left an advantage and undermine the Right?
Hi King Richard,
The 39 right-wing deserters deserted Macron before the election, so we can't add them to Macron's coalition total.
On if Macron was trying to set Le Pen up to win why did his party back out of elections to undermine Le Pen: This is called the "Republican Front" electoral tactic and has been around for a few decades. Definitely, Macron could not openly say "Let's end the Republican Front so that Le Pen will win" - that's simply a political impossible thing for him to do. It would totally go against his image. So I understand your question - the idea that Macron wanted to give the far-right power is something which we'll never have hard evidence of, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. The only alternative is that he genuinely thought his party would be handed another super-majority like in 2017 (keep in mind they already had a majority prior to these latest elections), which only somebody as deluded and lost as Macron could possibly think! So that's a possibility, but I trust his father: Macron, tired of not having a super-majority to do whatever he wished, threw out the 2022 votes and decided that it's better to give the far-right power in order to discredit themselves by 2027.
Thanks for the thorough and informative response!
"...fake leftists, who are so rampant in the West..." To those of my friends who tolerate my vulgarity and who I fear may be straying too far into identity politics, I like to say: "If you ain't talking class you're just blowing it out your arse". I used to read with great interest the writings of yours that the Saker published. So it was with delight that I discovered the other day that you now have a substack. I look forward to being enlightened by your analysis and amused by your humour. Best wishes.
I have used your saying already!
Very glad to have reconnected, indeed. Very glad you found me and many thanks for your kind words.
The Paris Olympics might present the perfect opportunity for a false flag. Blame any deaths or disruption on the evil Russians. It looks like the bed bugs there (Paris) will feast on "international cuisine". Europe never seems smaller than when a war is going on. If Hilary Spurling's book on Matisse is correct (link), the Russians were fans of Matisse and the "new art" well before the French, who clung to the traditionalist-pedantic Academy approved art. Lucky Matisse got to experience the Franco-Prussian dust-up (as a babe)plus the good times of WW1 and WW2. Many French artists were cannon fodder as a result of these altercations. Hey! War worked out so well before, let's have another go at it.
https://www.amazon.com/Matisse-Henri-Early-Years-1869-1908/dp/0679434283/ref=sr_1_2?crid=3LW952FNKU00L&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.52KSfdx5zDNnts8ajSCa9BupWftAcDC273iJpOdBlTfqrzfFwkFmYXyXEHp5YIZ2FM3inhVnMKAbcwDiC7EodAsybnAjLORInNMtOm_55GOq8fxcxzSQ5StklSQ9DXFFWxbM4lu9nH2ZhL2r8j6942XWhqciCoFle_LkjbLdmnfFBP90djJsVwTQIbE3DEgExTq1K5IW2r1BXfMaGLgkBjcVbsH_33QAEkGcW7DCex0.A_jAHe3tJiS3AhxokDcC2Ie7SJo2SGBjh4LhaaI5ppI&dib_tag=se&keywords=hilary+spurling+matisse&qid=1720524110&sprefix=spurling%2Caps%2C112&sr=8-2
I can tell you that Paris will be on total lockdown - really a huge, huge security operation. So it's going to be quite hard for actual terrorists, but a false flag? I hear you, the Olympics would be a good time to try and turn public opinion against Russia. I doubt it would work though!
A point of clarification, did the republican front then consist of the New Popular Front and Macron's Party, the agreement being the weakest of these would drop out in order to stop National Rally, or was the republican front some other configuration?
The Republican Front works like this:
In the 1st round if no candidate gets 50% they go to a second round. Anyone getting more than 12.5% advances to the 2nd round, so that often means 3 or more candidates.
If someone NOT on the far-right - New Popular Front, Macron, non-deserting Republicans, Socialist Party, Greens, whoever - knows that they really don't have a chance to prevail in the 2nd round... then they withdraw from the race in order to allow his voters to (if they choose) give his or her votes to a non-far-right candidate. So the tactic is to unite votes AGAINST a candidate - the far-right.
So the "Republic" in "Republican Front" is not referring to the French Republican Party - it is referring to the concept of preserving the "republic" system of the current French 5th Republic from falling into the hand of "fascists".
Thanks for the insightful rundown. Your stuff is indispensable. Hope springs eternal but success in this environment will be tough. The response will be brutal in terms of finance capital and MSM propaganda. An upsurge of Gladio-style terrorism is also possible to feed the "can't govern" narrative and drive people to the right. Let's hope a few policy victories that help lift up ordinary people light the way.
I sure appreciate the kind words Richard V.
Success for the leftist coalition in this environment is very tough, indeed. Will they be allowed any policy victories, no matter how sensible and needed by the masses? I don't know. The next year could be one big blah blah parliamentary brawl resulting in nothing.